In a few days we’ll know whether the long-awaited Eth2 Beacon Chain will make history by creating its genesis slot on December 1st.

If you’re not sure what any of this means (where have you been?) then get up to speed with this detailed guide from Consensys about the launch of Eth2.

The launch of the Beacon Chain will herald in the first phase of Ethereum’s Serenity upgrade – an upgrade that the market has, for a long time, treated with a great deal of doubt and scepticism.

And by the looks of it, that scepticism will prevail right up until the final hour.

For the Beacon Chain to go live on December 1st, 524,888 ETH must be deposited in the Eth1 deposit contract by midnight on December 24th. As it stands, the total amount deposited falls well short of that threshold and, with just 4 days to go before the December 1st genesis “deadline” is missed, many users and investors are raising concerns.

To many, the chart above would seem to put the chances of Eth2 reaching genesis on December 1st at slim-to-none. But this current shortfall is easy to explain; there is no advantage to depositing ETH in the deposit contract before November 24th. Genesis cannot start until December 1st (7 days after threshold is met) and any deposits prior to this will sit idle. To make matters worse, every 32 ETH (~$16,000) deposit sitting idle will bring with it an opportunity cost that falls somewhere between $5-$15/day depending on the holder’s risk appetite (see: yield farming).

While the average Eth2 validator with a 32 ETH stake might not mind too much about the $10/day opportunity cost, the whales sitting on the sidelines with the tens of thousands of ETH required for genesis will not be so quick to pull the trigger.

Getting ready for the last minute assault on the 24th.

Tip: I'm not alone in this
Pro-tip: Orca swims in podshttps://t.co/FXFzKFPzF8

— Tetranode (@Tetranode) November 20, 2020

Suspected ETH whale, Tetranode, Tweeted that they anticipate November 24th to bring a huge number of deposits, kicking off Eth2 on December 1st (or at least coming close to it).

While this might be considered unfounded speculation from passers-by, Tetranode is putting his “whale status” on the line should this not transpire.

A number of funds have also previously announced their intention to join Eth2 staking, with DARMA Capital claiming they will allocate roughly 100,000 ETH – a deposit that is yet to arrive but anticipated on or before November 24th.

"Andrew Keys and James Slazas of DARMA Capital will allocate more than $50 million worth of ETH to the contract deposit address for staking."

If/when this happens we go from 10% of the way to the required threshold for Phase 0 to something like 35%https://t.co/fuGcpnnGfz

— Steven (@Dogetoshi) November 11, 2020

This realization that – against all odds – Eth2 genesis may well happen on December 1st has likely been the catalyst for ETH’s rapid price climb against both USD and BTC in the last 24 hours.

Watch this space.